Market Outlook
July 05, 2018
Market Cues
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Indian markets are likely to open flat tracking global indices and SGX Nifty.
BSE Sensex
0.8
267
35,645
U.S. Stocks came under pressure over the course of the abbreviated trading session
Nifty
0.7
70
10,770
on Tuesday. The major averages pulled back off their highs of the session and into
Mid Cap
(0.2)
(26)
15,415
negative territory. The pullback by stocks came amid lingering trade concerns as
Small Cap
0.4
60
16,051
tariffs on billions of dollars worth of U.S. and Chinese goods are set to take effect
later this week The Dow Jones was down by 0.5% to 24,174 and the Nasdaq fell by
Bankex
0.7
201
29,326
0.9% to 7,503.
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
U.K. stocks were marginally lower on Wednesday as trade war worries persisted and
the pound turned higher in reaction to better-than-expected services sector data.
Dow Jones
(0.5)
(132)
24,175
U.K. service sector activity expanded at the fastest pace in eight months in June
Nasdaq
(0.9)
(65)
7,503
driven by strong growth in new work, survey data from IHS Markit showed, raising
FTSE
(0.3)
(20)
7,573
hopes the Bank of England would raise interest rates sooner than later. The
Nikkei
(0.2)
(33)
21,684
benchmark FTSE 100 dipped by 0.3% to 7,533.
Hang Seng
(0.0)
(6)
28,236
On domestic front, Indian shares rose notably on Wednesday after the Modi
Shanghai Com
0.1
2
2,761
government approved a hike in the minimum support price for Kharif crops and
survey data from IHS Markit suggested that India's services sector activity expanded
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
at the fastest pace in a year in June. The BSE Sensex was up by 0.8% to 35,645.
Advances
1,241
835
News Analysis
Declines
1,381
942
Steep hike in kharif MSPs may cost govt Rs 350 billion
Unchanged
142
99
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Volumes (` Cr)
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
BSE
2,890
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
NSE
25,098
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
Refer Pg5 onwards
Net Inflows (` Cr)
Net
Mtd
Ytd
FII
(987)
(829)
(5,669)
Top Picks
CMP
Target
Upside
*MFs
2,353
8,907
68,279
Company
Sector
Rating
(`)
(`)
(%)
Blue Star
Capital Goods
Buy
647
867
34.1
Top Gainers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Dewan Housing Finance
Financials
Buy
623
720
15.5
Parag Milk Foods
Others
Buy
305
410
34.6
ICIL
68
13.7
Bata India
Others
Buy
825
896
87.1
RELIGARE
52
8.4
KEI Industries
Capital Goods
Buy
413
589
42.8
MARKSANS
29
6.7
More Top Picks on Pg4
SOBHA
470
5.7
Key Upcoming Events
IPCALAB
714
5.5
Previous
Consensus
Date
Region
Event Description
ReadingExpectations
Jul 05, 2018
US
Change in Nonfarm payrolls
223.00
195.00
Top Losers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Jul 06, 2018
US
Initial Jobless claims
227.00
225.00
SRTRANSFIN
1145
-11.8
Jul 06, 2018
US
Unnemployment rate
3.80
3.80
NBCC
68
-5.4
Jul 10, 2018
US
Producer Price Index (mom)
1.00
VAKRANGEE
57
-5.0
Jul 10, 2018
UK
Industrial Production (YoY)
1.80
More Events on Pg7
KWALITY
21
-4.8
FSL
65
-4.8
As on July 04, 2018
Market Outlook
July 05, 2018
News Analysis
Steep hike in kharif MSPs may cost govt Rs 350 billion
Union Cabinet on Wednesday approved a sharp hike in minimum support prices
(MSP) of kharif crops for the 2018-19 season in a bid to contain the farm sector
distress. However, some farmers’ organisations argued that it was a small victory
for them as the increased prices were still below the comprehensive cost of
production. While the decision is being seen as a populist measure ahead of
Assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh (big
producers of kharif pulses, oilseeds and coarse cereals), it has also triggered
concerns of a spike in food inflation.
The decision will imply a dent of Rs 150 billion to the exchequer immediately,
according to officials. Sources, however, said that was a conservative estimate and
the final figure could be more than double at around Rs 350 billion once the
purchase price of oilseeds and pulses was taken into account.
Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh told reporters after the Cabinet Committee on
Economic Affairs (CCEA) meeting that the MSP hike was a step towards fulfilling
the government objective of doubling farmers’ income by 2022. "It will have a
pass on impact on the entire rural economy," he said. The government was
confident of addressing any impact on inflation, he said, adding that it would not
shy away from taking steps to improve the condition of farmers. Reacting to the
government move, shares of companies related to the agriculture sector surged by
up to 13 per cent.
Economic and Political News
MSPs hiked, but debate continues to ensure farmers reap the benefits
Overall war on bad debt is in the right direction
I-T's record recovery of Rs 1 trn contributes 10% to direct tax collection
Services PMI recovers from contraction, climbs to 52.6 on jump in orders
Corporate News
Lenders may invoke guarantees of Shriram Transport Finance on SVL Ltd
SC tells Jaiprakash Associates to deposit Rs 6 bn to refund home buyers
ArcelorMittal points to Essar Steel lenders' backing in NCLAT
Future Lifestyle to buy 29.9% stake in Koovs for an undisclosed amount
Market Outlook
July 05, 2018
Top Picks
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Favorable outlook for the AC industry to augur well
for Cooling products business which is out pacing
Blue Star
6,218
647
867
34.1
the market growth. EMPPAC division's profitability to
improve once operating environment turns around.
With a focus on the low and medium income (LMI)
consumer segment, the company has increased its
Dewan Housing Finance
19,546
623
720
15.5
presence in tier-II & III cities where the growth
opportunity is immense.
Well capitalized with CAR of 18.1% which gives
sufficient room to grow asset base. Faster resolution
ICICI Bank
1,75,710
273
416
52.3
of NPA would reduce provision cost, which would
help to report better ROE.
High order book execution in EPC segment, rising
KEI Industries
3,233
413
589
42.8
B2C sales and higher exports to boost the revenues
and profitability
Expected to benefit from the lower capex
Music Broadcast Limited
1,780
312
475
52.2
requirement and 15 year long radio broadcast
licensing.
Strong brands and distribution network would boost
Siyaram Silk Mills
2,377
507
851
67.8
growth going ahead. Stock currently trades at an
inexpensive valuation.
GST regime and the Gujarat plant are expected to
Maruti Suzuki
2,78,542
9,221
10,619
15.2
improve the company’s sales volume and margins,
respectively.
We expect loan book to grow at 24.3% over next
GIC Housing
1,871
348
655
88.5
two year; change in borrowing mix will help in NIM
improvement
Third largest brand play in luggage segment
Increased product offerings and improving
Safari Industries
1,376
617
720
16.6
distribution network is leading to strong growth in
business. Likely to post robust growth for next 3-4
years
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 05, 2018
Top Picks
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
We expect financialisation of savings and
Aditya Birla Capital
28,408
129
218
68.9
increasing penetration in Insurance & Mutual fund
would ensure steady growth.
One of the leading Indian dairy products
companies in India created strong brands in dairy
products. Rising revenue share of high-margin
Parag Milk Foods
2,562
305
410
34.6
Value Added Products and reduction in interest
cost is likely to boost margins and earnings in next
few years.
We expect MCL to report net revenue CAGR of
~15% to ~`450cr over FY2018-20E mainly due
to strong growth in online matchmaking &
Matrimony.com Ltd
1,716
755
1,016
34.5
marriage related services. On the bottom-line
front, we expect a CAGR of ~28% to `82cr over
the same period on the back margin
improvement.
HDFC Bank maintained its steady growth in the
4QFY18. The bank’s net profit grew by 20.3%.
Steady growth in interest income and other
HDFC Bank
5,47,654
2,103
2,315
10.1
income aided PAT growth. The Strong liability
franchise and healthy capitalisation provides
strong earning visibility. At the current market
price, the bank is trading at 3.2x FY20E ABV.
We expect strong PAT growth on back of healthy
growth in automobile segment (on back of new
launches and facelifts in some of the model ) and
M&M
1,12,788
898
1,050
17.1
strong growth in Tractors segment coupled by its
strong brand recall and improvement in rural
sentiment
Market leader in the room air conditioner (RAC)
outsourced manufacturing space in India with a
market share of 55.4%. It is a one-stop solutions
Amber Enterprises
2,793
1,026
1,230
19.8
provider for the major brands in the RAC industry
and currently serves eight out of the 10 top RAC
brands in India
BIL is the largest footwear retailer in India,
offering footwear, accessories and bags across
brands. We expect BIL to report net PAT CAGR of
Bata India
10,634
825
896
87.1
~16% to ~`3115cr over FY2018-20E mainly due
to new product launches, higher number of stores
addition and focus on women’s high growth
segment and margin improvement
SHTF is in the sweet spot with benefits from
stronger CV volumes, NIMs unaffected by rising
Shriram Transport Finance
29,532
1,144
1,764
54.2
bond yields on the back of stronger pricing power
and an enhancing ROE by 750bps over FY18-
20E, supported by decline in credit cost.
We expect JSPL’s top line to grow at 27% CAGR
over FY19-FY20 on the back of strong steel
demand and capacity addition. On the bottom
Jindal Steel & Power Limited
20,036
216
350
69.1
line front, we expect JSPL to turn in to profit by
FY19 on back of strong operating margin
improvement.
GMM Pfaudler Limited (GMM) is the Indian
market leader in glass-lined (GL) steel equipment.
GMM is expected to cross CAGR
15%+ in
GMM Pfaudler Ltd
1,178
806
1,020
26.6
revenue over the next few years mainly led by
uptick in demand from user industries and it is
also expecting to increase its share of non-GL
business to 50% by 2020.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 05, 2018
Fundamental Call
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
CCL is likely to maintain the strong growth
CCL Products
3,543
266
360
35.2
trajectory over FY18-20 backed by capacity
expansion and new geographical foray
We forecast Nilkamal to report top-line CAGR of
~9% to `2,635cr over FY17-20E on the back of
Nilkamal
2,417
1,620
2,178
34.4
healthy demand growth in plastic division. On the
bottom-line front, we estimate
~10% CAGR to
`162cr owing to improvement in volumes.
Elantas Beck India is the Indian market leader in
liquid insulation segment used in electrical
equipments like motors, transformers etc. It derives
Elantas Beck India Ltd
1,594
2,011
2,500
24.3
demand from several industries which are expected
to register 10%+ CAGR in demand in the coming
years.
Greenply Industries Ltd (GIL) manufactures plywood
& allied products and medium density fibreboards
(MDF). GIL to report net revenue CAGR of ~14% to
Greenply Industries
2,759
225
395
75.6
~`2,478cr over FY2017-20E mainly due to healthy
growth in plywood & lamination business on the
back of strong brand and distribution network
L&T Fin’s new management is on track to achieve
L&T Finance Holding
29,387
147
210
42.6
ROE of 18% by 2020 and recent capital infusion of
`3000cr would support advance growth.
Amongst the Indian Pharmaceutical companies, we
believe that Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals is well
placed to face the challenging generic markets,
given its focus on achieving growth through
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals
35,327
624
780
24.8
productivity. We expect Aurobindo to report net
revenue CAGR of ~13% & net profit to grow at
~5% CAGR during FY2018-20E, due to increased
R&D expenditure.
Market Outlook
July 05, 2018
Key Upcoming Events
Global economic events release calendar
Bloomberg Data
Date
Time Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Last Reported
Estimated
Jul 05, 2018
6:00 PMUS
Change in Nonfarm payrolls
Thousands
Jun
223.00
195.00
Jul 06, 2018
6:00 PMUS
Initial Jobless claims
Thousands
Jun 30
227.00
225.00
6:00 PMUS
Unnemployment rate
%
Jun
3.80
3.80
Jul 10, 2018
US
Producer Price Index (mom)
% Change
Jun
1.00
2:00 PMUK
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
May
1.80
Jul 11, 2018
7:00 AMChina
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
% Change
Jun
1.80
2.00
Jul 12, 2018
India
Imports YoY%
% Change
Jun
14.85
India
Exports YoY%
% Change
Jun
20.18
5:30 PMIndia
Industrial Production YoY
% Change
May
4.90
6:00 PMUS
Consumer price index (mom)
% Change
Jun
0.20
0.20
Jul 13, 2018
China
Exports YoY%
% Change
Jun
12.60
10.90
Jul 16, 2018
7:30 AMChina
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Jun
6.80
6.50
12:00 PMIndia
Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%
% Change
Jun
4.43
7:30 AMChina
Real GDP (YoY)
% Change
2Q
6.80
6.70
Jul 17, 2018
6:45 PMUS
Industrial Production
%
Jun
(0.09)
6:00 PMUS
Housing Starts
Thousands
Jun
1,350.00
Jul 18, 2018
2:00 PMUK
Jobless claims change
% Change
Jun
(7.70)
6:00 PMUS
Building permits
Thousands
Jun
1,301.00
2:30 PMEuro Zone
Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
%
Jun F
2.00
2:00 PMUK
CPI (YoY)
% Change
Jun
2.40
Jul 23, 2018
7:30 PMEuro Zone
Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
Value
Jul A
(0.50)
7:30 PMUS
Existing home sales
Million
Jun
5.43
Jul 24, 2018
1:00 PMGermany
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Jul P
55.90
Jul 25, 2018
7:30 PMUS
New home sales
Thousands
Jun
689.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 05, 2018
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
8.5
10.0
9.0
9.1
7.3
7.5
8.0
7.0
9.0
8.0
8.1
7.6
7.6
7.7
7.0
8.0
7.2
7.0
6.0
6.8
4.8
4.6
4.9
7.0
6.3
5.0
4.1
6.1
5.6
4.0
6.0
3.0
1.8
5.0
2.0
1.0
4.0
1.0
-
3.0
(1.0)
(0.3)
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
56.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
(%)
6.0
54.0
5.2
5.1
4.9
4.9
52.0
5.0
4.4
4.6
4.3
50.0
4.0
3.6
3.3
3.3
48.0
3.0
2.4
46.0
2.0
1.5
44.0
1.0
42.0
40.0
-
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
35.0
6.50
30.0
6.00
25.0
5.50
20.0
5.00
15.0
4.50
10.0
4.00
5.0
3.50
0.0
(5.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 05, 2018
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
8.0
6.9
7.0
5.8
6.0
5.3
5.0
5.0
1.1
3.7
4.0
2.5
3.0
2.2
1.8
2.0
1.5
1.4
0.8
1.0
0.3
-
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2017 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
6.7
6.8
7.0
6.0
5.4
5.2
5.0
3.7
4.0
3.0
1.8
2.2
2.0
1.7
1.6
2.0
0.7
1.5
0.7
1.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 05, 2018
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
74,743
(4.9)
(11.7)
20.5
Russia
Micex
4,484
1.4
7.1
11.4
India
Nifty
10,770
1.3
6.3
12.0
China
Shanghai Composite
2,759
(10.7)
(12.9)
(13.5)
South Africa
Top 40
51,374
(0.1)
6.6
12.1
Mexico
Mexbol
47,319
4.6
(0.3)
(5.4)
Indonesia
LQ45
908
(2.9)
(13.7)
(6.4)
Malaysia
KLCI
1,688
(3.9)
(9.1)
(4.9)
Thailand
SET 50
1,073
(5.2)
(7.8)
7.6
USA
Dow Jones
24,175
(1.9)
0.6
12.6
UK
FTSE
7,573
(2.2)
7.7
3.2
Japan
Nikkei
21,717
(3.4)
1.5
7.4
Germany
DAX
12,318
(3.5)
2.6
(1.1)
France
CAC
5,321
(2.8)
3.5
3.0
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 05, 2018
Exhibit 7: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
20-06-2018
Top Picks
Shriram Transport Finance Com
1,466
1,764
Open
01-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
862
948
Open
18-06-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
779
896
14-06-2018
Top Picks
Amber Enterprises
1,026
1,230
Open
07-06-2018
Top Picks
M&M
918
1050
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
M&M
860
990
03-05-2018
Fundamental
L&T Finance Holding
171
210
Open
02-05-2018
Top Picks
HDFC Bank
1944
2315
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
810
1016
Open
20-04-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
781
984
15-05-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
310
410
Open
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
249
333
29-06-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
932
1,020
Open
14-05-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
818
900
06-04-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
712
861
07-03-2018
Fundamental
Ashok Leyland Ltd
139
163
Closed (26/04/2018)
03-03-2018
Fundamental
Greenply Industries
340
395
Open
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
651
750
Open
21-02-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
532
650
31-05-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
348
Closed (31/05/2018)
16-02-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
433
510
07-02-2018
Fundamental
Elantas Beck India Ltd.
2155
2500
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
ICICI Bank
352
416
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
Aditya Birla Capital
167
218
Open
04-01-2018
Fundamental
CCL Products
278
360
Open
03-01-2018
Fundamental
Nilkamal Ltd
1880
2178
Open
01-01-2018
Fundamental
Capital First Ltd
693
850
Closed (15/01/2018)
30-12-2017
Fundamental
Shreyans Industries Ltd
205
247
Closed
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
160
Closed (09/05/2018)
21-12-2017
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
118
131
18-12-2017
Fundamental
Menon Bearings Limited
92
114
Closed (17/01/2018)
14-12-2017
Top Picks
Ruchira Papers Ltd.
188
244
Closed (09/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
280
Closed(17/05/2018)
28-11-2017
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
317
400
19-12-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
85
Closed(18/06/2018)
06-11-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
74
96
16-10-2017
Fundamental
Endurance Technologies Ltd
1111
1277
Closed (01/12/2017)
11-09-2017
Top Picks
GIC Housing
533
655
Open
10-10-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
404
475
Open
20-07-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
368
434
07-07-2017
Fundamental
L&T Finance Holdings Ltd
149
179
Closed (28/8/2017)
06-07-2017
Fundamental
Syngene International
478
564
Closed (1/3/2018)
05-07-2017
Top Picks
Maruti
7371
10619
Open
05-06-2017
Top Picks
Karur Vysya Bank
127
100
Closed (12/03/2018)
23-05-2018
Top Picks
KEI Industries
481
589
Open
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 05, 2018
Exhibit 8: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
04-01-2017
Top Picks
KEI Industries
125
485
31-05-2018
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1978
Closed (31/05/2018)
01-12-2016
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1700
2441
17-10-2016
Top Picks
Asian Granito
267
534
Closed (18/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
TV Today Network
460
Closed (17/05/2018)
04-08-2016
Top Picks
TV Today Network
297
603
05-04-2016
Top Picks
DHFL
189
720
Open
25-06-2018
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
Closed(25/06/2018)
05-01-2016
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
265
Open
08-12-2015
Top Picks
Blue Star
357
867
Open
30-10-2015
Top Picks
Siyaram Silk Mills
186
851
Open
Source: Company
Market Outlook
July 05, 2018
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
DISCLAIMER
Angel Broking Private Limited (hereinafter referred to as “Angel”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India
Limited,Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and Metropolitan Stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with
CDSL and Portfolio Manager with SEBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor. Angel Broking Private Limited is
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offering of securities of the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months.
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